Digg In the Future 54
jamie writes "A new site called Digg In The Future - created by 17-year-old high-school student Raj Vir as a research project - says that its algorithm can predict with 63-percent accuracy what shared links are going to make it to the front page of the Digg website. (Does it allow for brigades?)"
In a self-fulfilling prophecy... (Score:3, Insightful)
Did it predict that the article on it would be on top of Digg?
Observing disturbs the observed (Score:3, Insightful)
... factors taken into consideration are what I like to call “power submitters” ... and “power diggers”... The algorithm also relies on other factors, Vir says, including the time of day (since stories submitted in the early morning hours are unlikely to reach the front page) and whether the link comes from “preferred” sites that appeal to Digg users
If people adapt their submission procedure to increase their chance of it reaching front page, it will drop the algorithm's accuracy initially, as submitters that don't fit the user profile suddenly match the 'best submission time criteria'.
The curve will then level out, and climb again, eventually increasing the algorithm's accuracy beyond the initial point as more people conform to the best criteria.