'The Joys of Being a Late Tech Adopter' (nytimes.com) 68
An anonymous reader quotes the lead consumer technology writer for the New York Times:
I'm neither a Luddite nor a cheapskate. But after testing hundreds of tech products -- and buying some along the way -- over the last dozen years, I've come to a conclusion: People will almost always get more joy from technology the longer they wait for it to mature. [Alternate URL here.] Cutting-edge gadgets can invoke awe and temptation, but being an early adopter involves risk, and the downsides usually outweigh the benefits.
Keep this in mind when, starting next month, we enter the end-of-the-year tech frenzy. That's when companies like Apple, Samsung and Google will try to woo us with hot new gadgets, including premium smartphones, tablets and wearable computers... [M]y default recommendation is to resist hitting the "Buy" button and to wait unless you absolutely need to replace your older tech. "New doesn't always necessarily mean better, or better in ways that will matter," said Nick Guy, a senior staff writer for Wirecutter, a New York Times company that tests products.
He remembers paying $600 for an original iPhone in 2007 -- only to watch the price drop to $200 within six months.
Keep this in mind when, starting next month, we enter the end-of-the-year tech frenzy. That's when companies like Apple, Samsung and Google will try to woo us with hot new gadgets, including premium smartphones, tablets and wearable computers... [M]y default recommendation is to resist hitting the "Buy" button and to wait unless you absolutely need to replace your older tech. "New doesn't always necessarily mean better, or better in ways that will matter," said Nick Guy, a senior staff writer for Wirecutter, a New York Times company that tests products.
He remembers paying $600 for an original iPhone in 2007 -- only to watch the price drop to $200 within six months.
Re: Really? (Score:4, Informative)
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When you live in the United States, it no longer makes a difference if you have an unlocked device or a financed one - you will pay the same amount for your cellular plan. Further, some carriers will even punish you for not buying their device by locking you out of some services that are otherwise available.
Example: if you buy a Samsung Galaxy S10 Unlocked and use it on Xfinity Mobile (a Verizon MVNO), you can not send or receive Text Messages as they will not activate the CDMA-Less flag on the line. But, buy the same phone from them, they will make the configuration change and everything works normally.
You should complain to the FCC.
Oh, wait... [arstechnica.com]
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"if you buy a Samsung Galaxy S10 Unlocked and use it on Xfinity Mobile (a Verizon MVNO), you can not send or receive Text Messages as they will not activate the CDMA-Less flag on the line. But, buy the same phone from them, they will make the configuration change and everything works normally."
I absolutely cannot believe the stupidity of you Americans. If the service from vendor X is not working in accordance with the contract of service for which you are paying give them an opportunity to fix it and if th
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Re: Really? (Score:1)
I don't care anymore about the latest tech (Score:5, Interesting)
I type this from an 8 year old Lenovo laptop running Windows 7, and I use a tube oscilloscope to tool around my Commodore 64s and 128s and other assorted garbage.
I keep it out of the landfill and I know how it works.
At work they just dumped new Windows 10 PCs on us, these computers have unfathomable computing power yet I spend my days fighting against a clunky interface and trying to find out why I can't install an ad blocker on my web browser anymore.
Computers have past a certain tipping point where they "trip over their own shoelaces" now, too complex and too big to properly use anymore.
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"have passed", dammit.
Re:I don't care anymore about the latest tech (Score:5, Funny)
It's frustrating how you so often just can't see grammar and spelling errors until just after you hit submit.
until just after you hit submit. (Score:3)
>> can't see grammar and spelling errors until just after you hit submit.
Amen!
Gmail now waits a few seconds before actually sending so you can hit the Unsend button.
Now errots don't become obvious till just after the grace period expires.
How does it do that?
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Upgrading to the latest technology used to be a good thing. Newer was almost always better. But over the last few years, it has started looking like this:
https://i.imgur.com/oqHUvQ3.pn... [imgur.com]
There are very few cases these days where newer is better.
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I'm using a 10 year old laptop, recently upgraded from a 12 year old one. Took the RAM and SSD from the old one and kept going. As long as I run Linux I can keep upgrading.
There's a file server with a Sandy Bridge (probably overkill), ZFS and 8 TB of storage (2 2x4 RAID). I used to run a NetApp for 100 engineers that had 250GB. When drives fail, I'll upgrade to larger ones if I need more storage.
My homelab is an R710 running OpenStack and an old APC UPS with refreshed batteries.
Like you, my main issues
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I type this from an 8 year old Lenovo laptop running Windows 7
I'm typing this from exactly the same thing... well, a Gen1 Carbon which is about six years old I think. It just keeps on going, does everything I want, runs everything I need to, no need to upgrade.
OK, the fact that I'd have to move to Win10 is also helping me stay with the Gen1, but there's really no need to move, apart from the forced shutdown of 7 next year.
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Ditto. I still use my decade custom built PCs. I used upgrade every other years because of gaming. I don't game anymore. I will upgrade when it break. Actually, my 12 yars old Debian/Linux Jessie v8 box likes to randomly rarely hard lock up. I think it's its GeForce 8800 GT because I touch, it crashes hard with no video signal. Even beeped (though it was my APC UPS).
Thesis is mostly right (Score:1)
I generally would agree that the "anonymous reader" is right when the individual doesn't understand the technology involved. But, when you are familiar/involved with the technology you can take a certain amount of additional satisfaction that you were able to predict the next trend.
Re:Thesis is mostly right (Score:4, Interesting)
But, when you are familiar/involved with the technology you can take a certain amount of additional satisfaction that you were able to predict the next trend.
This of course is the real reason people buy what they're told to buy; they think they're edgy or technically astute because they buy the latest fad items.
Re:Thesis is mostly right (Score:4, Interesting)
When I made the comment, I was really thinking of myself when I was involved in different companies when new technology came out.
I was at RIM when the first iPhones came out and I felt it was pretty obvious that while RIM had a technologically superior product, the iPhone would have a better user/app infrastructure and would end up burying the Blackberry. It was an interesting time because the CEOs and the Senior Software VP were all convinced that the RIM way of charging for development tools and having the company validating apps was the right way to go and they spent a lot of time justifying that position to the rank and file.
I would be dating myself when I was pushing the '386SX over the '386 & '286 for low-end PCs when I was at IBM, but for a number of years, that was the right way to go at the time.
Although I did think that Itanium was going to take over the server market...
Ahh, but what does mature tech really mean... (Score:2)
Great, you only want to adopt mature tech. Sounds like a resemble plan.
There are many that claim all of the new phones don't really offer anything new. So wouldn't you be sticking to the plan by buying new phone models? And they would be supported longer, so you could wait longer before upgrading again.
I agree that if there is some tech that is really new it might be a good idea to wait a few years to let it mature. But it doesn't mean you can't generally buy new things with current tech that are in mo
Re: Ahh, but what does mature tech really mean... (Score:2)
The new phones are better (Score:2)
b) spend a bunch of money on a new phone that is no better than his old one
The thing is the new tech is better, it's noticeably faster, the cameras are way better if you shave something a few years old.
But he could wait a while longer, I think a five year cycle is not unreasonable if you really want to stretch it out.
But that is predicated on buying the newer phones today, if you buy an older phone to be using something more "mature" it means it will be notably out of date a few years earlier prompting an
Re: The new phones are better (Score:3, Insightful)
I recently bought a Galaxy S7. Reconditioned for $99. Best phone I have ever had. In a few years maybe I will upgrade to whatever is full priced now.
Re: The new phones are better (Score:2)
Re:Ahh, but what does mature tech really mean... (Score:4, Informative)
Great, you only want to adopt mature tech. Sounds like a resemble plan.
I see a fatal flaw. It's often difficult to actually buy last year's tech.
You can buy second hand, but if it's a smartphone then the battery probably won't hold a full charge any more and will be on it's way out. Plus you get an older OS which may have widely-known security holes, etc.
If it's a second hand laptop, then... used keyboards and trackpads, ew!
Re:Ahh, but what does mature tech really mean... (Score:5, Insightful)
"It's often difficult to actually buy last year's tech. You can buy second hand, but..."
You don't need to buy used stuff (although there's actually nothing wrong with that). Just don't buy bleeding edge.
Instead of (soon) an iPhone 11, how about a Moto or a Nokia instead? You'll pay a fraction of the price, and suffer (at most) a rather small performance penalty. The only thing you'll be missing is the ability to show off the new shiny for a few weeks.
Or look at PC processors. Intel's newest generation - reading through the obfuscation - is actually worse that the previous generation. Even within previous generations, an i5 processor or even an i3 processor will do just fine for most people; few actually need an i7. Same for graphics cards: drop to the previous generation, which most definitely is still for sale, and save a pile of money while still getting 90% of the performance.
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Good point. I never buy cutting-edge PC components for exactly that reason. The price-performance graph isn't a straight line it's an exponential curve. The best place to be is somewhere in the middle.
That way you don't blow all your money on something that will be at the middle in six months time anyway.
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Early adopter = paid beta (Score:5, Insightful)
Late adopter = tested, cheaper, more efficient, wider availability, more support, standards ironed out, and polished experience
I have no problem waiting.
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Ditto. I got sick of buggy expensive products. I have no time for that unless they want to pay me to QA test!
Or, the joy of watching the price go up? (Score:2)
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Hindsight is 20:20. It could just as easily have vanished without trace.
(and still might...)
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Luddite = racism and bigotry! (Score:5, Funny)
Jokes aside I wish folks would pay more attention (Score:1)
I'm not saying the Luddites were right... or wrong. I'm say a socie
Early adopters are suckers (Score:2)
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Yes Einstein and so have a very large number other of people.
Re: Early adopters are suckers (Score:2)
The Windows 10 effect (Score:5, Interesting)
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Still party like it's 1999?
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All changes in windows 10 over 7 attempt to solve Microsoft's business problems. There is not a single thing that solves any of my problems, in fact I had to install third-party add-ons and old applications just to bring back missing functionality in 10. I only have to run windows 10 because the new notebook has no hardware drivers for 7.
We kow (Score:5, Interesting)
"People will almost always get more joy from technology the longer they wait for it to mature."
Yeah, we know.
I rarely buy version 1.0 of anything. Version 2.0 is usually better, cheaper, faster, and often has at least some of the v1.0 bugs fixed.
I really wanted a flat screen TV when they first came out, but I waited a couple of years and bought a better, larger flat screen TV for about half of what the original ones cost.
Depends on what (Score:3)
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The early adopters may become contibutors (Score:3, Interesting)
I think here about adopting 8 bit computers in 80ties vs waiting till Facebook becomes a commodity. The waiters saved some money but by that time many of the early adopters had careers in computing.
Heathen! (Score:2)
"New doesn't always necessarily mean better, or better in ways that will matter,"
That is factually not true. New is always better [youtube.com].
Skipped over HDTV (Score:2)
I had been thinking about finally upgrading when I got a coupon for a new 4K TiVo with lifetime service for $99 (normally $549). So I finally got a new 4K TV to go with it. I skipped over the whole HDTV phase.
Yeah, 8K is starting to appear, but I think it'll be a much slower uptake than
Re:Skipped over HDTV (Score:4, Insightful)
Yeah, 8K is starting to appear, but I think it'll be a much slower uptake than 4K. I mean, 4K is pretty damned good enough.
1080P is damned good enough. Heck, one can argue that 720P is damned good enough.
4K and 8K are basically money grabs by television manufacturers, who started drooling when they saw what Apple and Samsung were able to convince some subset of consumers to pay every couple of years for telephones which were only marginally iterating.
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1080p dragged laptops down because the panels at that resolution got so cheap.
4k TVs can't proliferate fast enough, because we want cheap LCDs for PCs.
Are you telling me it's time to buy a microwave? (Score:3)
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Solid state ones are coming, that use gallium nitride transistors. Hold off for a while.
I still can't get my brother to believe (Score:3)
Right now's a good time to be a PC gamer. A 1060 or RX580 can be had for under $200 new and $100 if you're willing to snipe one on ebay (it took me a while to get my 580 though). AMD's just leap frogged Intel and Ryzen 2600s are going for $160 bucks with a decent board costing under $150. And if you're team blue they're feeling the heat and are only slightly more expensive. Spend another $40 bucks and you can get a Ryzen 3600 for $200, which is just nuts. I can build a 1080p/Ultra rig for about $800 and a 4k rig for $1000k (-$100 if you've already got Windows). And entry level gaming laptops with 1660 GPUs are out there for $700-$800 if you know where to look.
Factually incorrect (Score:5, Informative)
Are authors required to fact-check themselves?
In 2007, I caved and bought Apple's original iPhone.
Having a fully functional web browser on a mobile device was too tempting, and as someone with a lousy sense of direction, I wanted the maps. So that winter, I paid AT&T $600 for the iPhone with a two-year contract. For a while, I relished being among the privileged few to live in the future.
That special feeling faded about six months later when Apple released the second-generation iPhone. Not only did the new model connect with 3G, a much faster cellular technology at the time, but it started at just $200 with a contract. Ouch.
The iPhone launched in June 2007 with a 4GB model at $499 and an 8GB model at $599.
In September 2007, they killed the 4 GB model (people were buying the 8GB model over the 4GB model by around 5 or 10 to 1) and they reduced the price of the 8GB model to $399. They gave anyone who paid $499 or $599 a $100 store credit.
In July 2008, they introduced the 8GB 3G at $199 (with contract).
So his claim of "about six months" to go from $599 to $199 would have been at least ten months -- September 2007 to July 2008 -- and that ignores the $100 credit.
But he didn't pay $599 EVER. He says he bought it in "winter" at the "end of 2007", so let's call that December. That's still about 8 months until the 3G launched, and no way did he pay $599 at any point in December. The iPhone had been $399 for 3 months by that point. So either his dates are wrong, or he actually went from $399 to $199 at any point after September. But that's not nearly as dramatic of a story, is it?
No matter which way you slice it, he's somewhere between "exaggerating" and "totally wrong".
tech is usually ripe ... (Score:3)
.. when industry and media stops pushing it.
then again for some people it's a must because of status or just plain satisfaction. well, may they enjoy their money's worth.
and then again it depends. i wouldn't pay 1€ for an iphone anyway, but jumped right into vr. that's something i had always wanted to see and i'm getting old now ...
Oversimplified (Score:2)
There are certainly examples where a technology went through a rapid maturation phase, for example the basic PC between the early 80s and the late 80s, but once we had the i386 there were no great qualitative leaps forward. But it is not easy to recognize the point where a technology has peaked, and later adopters are not reaping benefits but are merely late to the game.
New is Always Better (Score:3)
New doesn't always necessarily mean better...
"New is always better." -Barney Stinson
Thank the pioneers (Score:2)
Blessed be the early adopters ... (Score:4, Interesting)
Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em (Score:2)
As a software professional of 30+ years, I've seen tech come and go and I've gotten pretty good at being able to see what tech will be a flash-in-the-pan and what tech has staying power.
I've also learned that what looks good today may not make it in the future, no matter how good it is.
Exploring a new tech is always a good thing. But I'd never bet my company on any new tech until it's proved itself.
Wait just until you can buy it used (Score:2)
Don't necessarily buy it used, but wait until you can. There will be a price drop. I personally like refurbs, hopefully they actually fix the problem. IME they usually have done so and refurbs are fine.
Never buy "1.0" anything (Score:2)
On tech from consumer perspective (Score:1)
Agreed... (Score:1)