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'The Joys of Being a Late Tech Adopter' (nytimes.com) 68

An anonymous reader quotes the lead consumer technology writer for the New York Times: I'm neither a Luddite nor a cheapskate. But after testing hundreds of tech products -- and buying some along the way -- over the last dozen years, I've come to a conclusion: People will almost always get more joy from technology the longer they wait for it to mature. [Alternate URL here.] Cutting-edge gadgets can invoke awe and temptation, but being an early adopter involves risk, and the downsides usually outweigh the benefits.

Keep this in mind when, starting next month, we enter the end-of-the-year tech frenzy. That's when companies like Apple, Samsung and Google will try to woo us with hot new gadgets, including premium smartphones, tablets and wearable computers... [M]y default recommendation is to resist hitting the "Buy" button and to wait unless you absolutely need to replace your older tech. "New doesn't always necessarily mean better, or better in ways that will matter," said Nick Guy, a senior staff writer for Wirecutter, a New York Times company that tests products.

He remembers paying $600 for an original iPhone in 2007 -- only to watch the price drop to $200 within six months.
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'The Joys of Being a Late Tech Adopter'

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  • by 50000BTU_barbecue ( 588132 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @10:47AM (#59143944) Journal

    I type this from an 8 year old Lenovo laptop running Windows 7, and I use a tube oscilloscope to tool around my Commodore 64s and 128s and other assorted garbage.
    I keep it out of the landfill and I know how it works.
    At work they just dumped new Windows 10 PCs on us, these computers have unfathomable computing power yet I spend my days fighting against a clunky interface and trying to find out why I can't install an ad blocker on my web browser anymore.
    Computers have past a certain tipping point where they "trip over their own shoelaces" now, too complex and too big to properly use anymore.

    • "have passed", dammit.

    • by damaki ( 997243 )
      I bought a 10 yo HP Proliant and I love it! It was dirt cheap, can take up to 8 drives and 8 RAM sticks and it just works. I did install a shiny Proxmox on it, and it runs like a charm.
    • by Anonymous Coward

      Upgrading to the latest technology used to be a good thing. Newer was almost always better. But over the last few years, it has started looking like this:

      https://i.imgur.com/oqHUvQ3.pn... [imgur.com]

      There are very few cases these days where newer is better.

    • by tbuskey ( 135499 )

      I'm using a 10 year old laptop, recently upgraded from a 12 year old one. Took the RAM and SSD from the old one and kept going. As long as I run Linux I can keep upgrading.

      There's a file server with a Sandy Bridge (probably overkill), ZFS and 8 TB of storage (2 2x4 RAID). I used to run a NetApp for 100 engineers that had 250GB. When drives fail, I'll upgrade to larger ones if I need more storage.

      My homelab is an R710 running OpenStack and an old APC UPS with refreshed batteries.

      Like you, my main issues

    • I type this from an 8 year old Lenovo laptop running Windows 7

      I'm typing this from exactly the same thing... well, a Gen1 Carbon which is about six years old I think. It just keeps on going, does everything I want, runs everything I need to, no need to upgrade.

      OK, the fact that I'd have to move to Win10 is also helping me stay with the Gen1, but there's really no need to move, apart from the forced shutdown of 7 next year.

    • by antdude ( 79039 )

      Ditto. I still use my decade custom built PCs. I used upgrade every other years because of gaming. I don't game anymore. I will upgrade when it break. Actually, my 12 yars old Debian/Linux Jessie v8 box likes to randomly rarely hard lock up. I think it's its GeForce 8800 GT because I touch, it crashes hard with no video signal. Even beeped (though it was my APC UPS).

  • I generally would agree that the "anonymous reader" is right when the individual doesn't understand the technology involved. But, when you are familiar/involved with the technology you can take a certain amount of additional satisfaction that you were able to predict the next trend.

    • by tomhath ( 637240 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @11:38AM (#59144052)

      But, when you are familiar/involved with the technology you can take a certain amount of additional satisfaction that you were able to predict the next trend.

      This of course is the real reason people buy what they're told to buy; they think they're edgy or technically astute because they buy the latest fad items.

      • by mykepredko ( 40154 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @12:03PM (#59144142) Homepage

        When I made the comment, I was really thinking of myself when I was involved in different companies when new technology came out.

        I was at RIM when the first iPhones came out and I felt it was pretty obvious that while RIM had a technologically superior product, the iPhone would have a better user/app infrastructure and would end up burying the Blackberry. It was an interesting time because the CEOs and the Senior Software VP were all convinced that the RIM way of charging for development tools and having the company validating apps was the right way to go and they spent a lot of time justifying that position to the rank and file.

        I would be dating myself when I was pushing the '386SX over the '386 & '286 for low-end PCs when I was at IBM, but for a number of years, that was the right way to go at the time.

        Although I did think that Itanium was going to take over the server market...

  • Great, you only want to adopt mature tech. Sounds like a resemble plan.

    There are many that claim all of the new phones don't really offer anything new. So wouldn't you be sticking to the plan by buying new phone models? And they would be supported longer, so you could wait longer before upgrading again.

    I agree that if there is some tech that is really new it might be a good idea to wait a few years to let it mature. But it doesn't mean you can't generally buy new things with current tech that are in mo

    • Uhm... you present him two choices: a) keep the phone he's got which he's already paid for and work or b) spend a bunch of money on a new phone that is no better than his old one. Am I missing something?
      • b) spend a bunch of money on a new phone that is no better than his old one

        The thing is the new tech is better, it's noticeably faster, the cameras are way better if you shave something a few years old.

        But he could wait a while longer, I think a five year cycle is not unreasonable if you really want to stretch it out.

        But that is predicated on buying the newer phones today, if you buy an older phone to be using something more "mature" it means it will be notably out of date a few years earlier prompting an

    • by Joce640k ( 829181 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @11:54AM (#59144094) Homepage

      Great, you only want to adopt mature tech. Sounds like a resemble plan.

      I see a fatal flaw. It's often difficult to actually buy last year's tech.

      You can buy second hand, but if it's a smartphone then the battery probably won't hold a full charge any more and will be on it's way out. Plus you get an older OS which may have widely-known security holes, etc.

      If it's a second hand laptop, then... used keyboards and trackpads, ew!

      • by bradley13 ( 1118935 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @02:17PM (#59144466) Homepage

        "It's often difficult to actually buy last year's tech. You can buy second hand, but..."

        You don't need to buy used stuff (although there's actually nothing wrong with that). Just don't buy bleeding edge.

        Instead of (soon) an iPhone 11, how about a Moto or a Nokia instead? You'll pay a fraction of the price, and suffer (at most) a rather small performance penalty. The only thing you'll be missing is the ability to show off the new shiny for a few weeks.

        Or look at PC processors. Intel's newest generation - reading through the obfuscation - is actually worse that the previous generation. Even within previous generations, an i5 processor or even an i3 processor will do just fine for most people; few actually need an i7. Same for graphics cards: drop to the previous generation, which most definitely is still for sale, and save a pile of money while still getting 90% of the performance.

        • Good point. I never buy cutting-edge PC components for exactly that reason. The price-performance graph isn't a straight line it's an exponential curve. The best place to be is somewhere in the middle.

          That way you don't blow all your money on something that will be at the middle in six months time anyway.

        • by tflf ( 4410717 )
          If you look at used: why are batteries an issue? Because you can''t change them. Some of us are old enough to remember replaceable batteries - I still use an HP G62 laptop that's on it's third battery. Why is OS an issue? Almost always a manufacturers decision. Like them or not, Windows is much better than Apple at introducing new OS's capable of running on older hardware, especially troubling given Apple hardware is designed and produced only by Apple. The OS issue even applies to new products. Waiting 6
  • by HalAtWork ( 926717 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @11:19AM (#59144008)

    Late adopter = tested, cheaper, more efficient, wider availability, more support, standards ironed out, and polished experience

    I have no problem waiting.

    • Yes, you would think that would be how it works. However, I have seen too many new products (phones) that seem ok at release, but when you use them for a few weeks, you discover a firmware bug, or it drains the battery too quickly, or there is a buzzing from the screen, or some other software usability problem. You wait patiently for the manufacturer to release an update to fix/improve/mitigate the problem, but several release cycles go by and although there are updates, they don't fix your problem, or wors
    • by antdude ( 79039 )

      Ditto. I got sick of buggy expensive products. I have no time for that unless they want to pay me to QA test!

  • I had the joy of looking at bitcoin at $0.25... I resisted the urge to buy.. The price doesn't always go down!
  • by Way Smarter Than You ( 6157664 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @11:27AM (#59144024)
    As an English textile worker, I take exception to the use of this word as an insult! It must stop immediately! We prefer the term, "people of technological historical stability". Thank you.
    • to the history of the term. Luddites were part of a movement started when people lost their jobs to automation without anything on the horizon to replace them. Contrary to popular belief you didn't lose your job at one factory and go work at another. There were decades of unemployment, poverty and social strife before tech caught up. It wasn't really until post WWII that the world really recovered job wise from the industrial revolution.

      I'm not saying the Luddites were right... or wrong. I'm say a socie
  • I've been saying that for years and I stand by by it.
  • by xack ( 5304745 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @11:39AM (#59144056)
    Windows 10 has been out for over four years yet so many companies are still using Windows 7. I feel there will be a very late or no switch over for some companies as they would rather have no support than forced reboots, candy crush and telemetry on mission critical machines. There is still a lot of Windows XP and earlier out there as well.
    • All changes in windows 10 over 7 attempt to solve Microsoft's business problems. There is not a single thing that solves any of my problems, in fact I had to install third-party add-ons and old applications just to bring back missing functionality in 10. I only have to run windows 10 because the new notebook has no hardware drivers for 7.

  • We kow (Score:5, Interesting)

    by JustAnotherOldGuy ( 4145623 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @12:00PM (#59144128) Journal

    "People will almost always get more joy from technology the longer they wait for it to mature."

    Yeah, we know.

    I rarely buy version 1.0 of anything. Version 2.0 is usually better, cheaper, faster, and often has at least some of the v1.0 bugs fixed.

    I really wanted a flat screen TV when they first came out, but I waited a couple of years and bought a better, larger flat screen TV for about half of what the original ones cost.

  • by stabiesoft ( 733417 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @12:04PM (#59144144) Homepage
    Will I buy the latest phone that is just a tiny bit better for big bucks, nope. Did I buy the first CD player back in the early 80's, yep. Paid 900 for it if I remember right. But it did something nothing else did. Did I buy the first BD player yep, one of the first HDTV's yep. Revolutionary tech is expensive, someone has to pay for the R. But much of the new incremental tech is way overpriced. Often these objects are a fashion statement more than a tech one. I don't buy designer clothes either.
  • by Janusz Szpilewski ( 2860849 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @12:16PM (#59144166)
    And finally make some profits when the tech does not show to be a fad and actually grows up.

    I think here about adopting 8 bit computers in 80ties vs waiting till Facebook becomes a commodity. The waiters saved some money but by that time many of the early adopters had careers in computing.
  • "New doesn't always necessarily mean better, or better in ways that will matter,"

    That is factually not true. New is always better [youtube.com].

  • Until recently, I still had my old standard-definition, 27" CRT TV. I kept it largely because I had an old standard-definition TiVo for which I bought lifetime service a long time ago. (I certainly got my money's worth.)

    I had been thinking about finally upgrading when I got a coupon for a new 4K TiVo with lifetime service for $99 (normally $549). So I finally got a new 4K TV to go with it. I skipped over the whole HDTV phase.

    Yeah, 8K is starting to appear, but I think it'll be a much slower uptake than

    • by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @01:30PM (#59144370)

      Yeah, 8K is starting to appear, but I think it'll be a much slower uptake than 4K. I mean, 4K is pretty damned good enough.

      1080P is damned good enough. Heck, one can argue that 720P is damned good enough.

      4K and 8K are basically money grabs by television manufacturers, who started drooling when they saw what Apple and Samsung were able to convince some subset of consumers to pay every couple of years for telephones which were only marginally iterating.

      • 1080p dragged laptops down because the panels at that resolution got so cheap.

        4k TVs can't proliferate fast enough, because we want cheap LCDs for PCs.

  • Is it ok now to get a microwave oven?? I've been holding off till prices come down.
  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @12:52PM (#59144256)
    that Bluetooth and Wi-Fi work now, even though he uses both daily :). Spend 20 years jiggering them to just barely work before they were ready and you get gun shy.

    Right now's a good time to be a PC gamer. A 1060 or RX580 can be had for under $200 new and $100 if you're willing to snipe one on ebay (it took me a while to get my 580 though). AMD's just leap frogged Intel and Ryzen 2600s are going for $160 bucks with a decent board costing under $150. And if you're team blue they're feeling the heat and are only slightly more expensive. Spend another $40 bucks and you can get a Ryzen 3600 for $200, which is just nuts. I can build a 1080p/Ultra rig for about $800 and a 4k rig for $1000k (-$100 if you've already got Windows). And entry level gaming laptops with 1660 GPUs are out there for $700-$800 if you know where to look.
  • Factually incorrect (Score:5, Informative)

    by sootman ( 158191 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @01:18PM (#59144322) Homepage Journal

    Are authors required to fact-check themselves?

    In 2007, I caved and bought Apple's original iPhone.

    Having a fully functional web browser on a mobile device was too tempting, and as someone with a lousy sense of direction, I wanted the maps. So that winter, I paid AT&T $600 for the iPhone with a two-year contract. For a while, I relished being among the privileged few to live in the future.

    That special feeling faded about six months later when Apple released the second-generation iPhone. Not only did the new model connect with 3G, a much faster cellular technology at the time, but it started at just $200 with a contract. Ouch.

    The iPhone launched in June 2007 with a 4GB model at $499 and an 8GB model at $599.

    In September 2007, they killed the 4 GB model (people were buying the 8GB model over the 4GB model by around 5 or 10 to 1) and they reduced the price of the 8GB model to $399. They gave anyone who paid $499 or $599 a $100 store credit.

    In July 2008, they introduced the 8GB 3G at $199 (with contract).

    So his claim of "about six months" to go from $599 to $199 would have been at least ten months -- September 2007 to July 2008 -- and that ignores the $100 credit.

    But he didn't pay $599 EVER. He says he bought it in "winter" at the "end of 2007", so let's call that December. That's still about 8 months until the 3G launched, and no way did he pay $599 at any point in December. The iPhone had been $399 for 3 months by that point. So either his dates are wrong, or he actually went from $399 to $199 at any point after September. But that's not nearly as dramatic of a story, is it?

    No matter which way you slice it, he's somewhere between "exaggerating" and "totally wrong".

  • by znrt ( 2424692 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @01:22PM (#59144340)

    .. when industry and media stops pushing it.

    then again for some people it's a must because of status or just plain satisfaction. well, may they enjoy their money's worth.

    and then again it depends. i wouldn't pay 1€ for an iphone anyway, but jumped right into vr. that's something i had always wanted to see and i'm getting old now ...

  • There are certainly examples where a technology went through a rapid maturation phase, for example the basic PC between the early 80s and the late 80s, but once we had the i386 there were no great qualitative leaps forward. But it is not easy to recognize the point where a technology has peaked, and later adopters are not reaping benefits but are merely late to the game.

  • by ZipK ( 1051658 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @01:32PM (#59144374)

    New doesn't always necessarily mean better...

    "New is always better." -Barney Stinson

  • As a late adopter myself, I am truly grateful that people with more cash than I have helped iron out bugs and design flaws in the early models. Saying that though, imagine being among the first to possess an iPod or iPad - truly revolutionary tech and probably worth the premium just to watch faces when you show it off! There are only a few bits of tech that I could say that about though.
  • by John Jorsett ( 171560 ) on Saturday August 31, 2019 @02:56PM (#59144538)
    ... for they provide the funds and incentives for manufacturers to ramp up production and continue development so that the rest of us can buy the tech at reasonable prices and with some/most of the more egregious problems fixed.
  • As a software professional of 30+ years, I've seen tech come and go and I've gotten pretty good at being able to see what tech will be a flash-in-the-pan and what tech has staying power.

    I've also learned that what looks good today may not make it in the future, no matter how good it is.

    Exploring a new tech is always a good thing. But I'd never bet my company on any new tech until it's proved itself.

  • Don't necessarily buy it used, but wait until you can. There will be a price drop. I personally like refurbs, hopefully they actually fix the problem. IME they usually have done so and refurbs are fine.

  • I never buy version 1.0 of anything...hardware or software. Shoot, I just got a smart watch about 10 months ago! Price came down, thought I'd try it, then send it back. But the less hassle from having to rip my phone out for work, to see what is ringing, beeping or buzzing was worth it. Then the side benefit of seeing my sleep pattern VERY poor and resting HR in the upper 80's. I changed a couple things, sleep better, and resting HR is now in the 60's.
  • I have been bitten far too many times by sub-par (immature) product quality or too a short lifespan of a product. So much that I find it really hard to become enthusiastic about buying *anything* unless really in need. This "time-to-market" thing is killing quality. Then again, I'm 49, I've seen the old days when the concept of quality and lifespan was apparently different.
  • i've always been one of the "slightly-later adopters" :-) (ditched VHS and go to a DVD player, my first cell phone, flat TV, even a laptop versus a desktop)

Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes, and not rather a new wearer of clothes. -- Henry David Thoreau

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